7.2 pc GDP growth possible: Khandker
Aziz says it’s mission impossible
Dhaka, June 16 (UNB) – Planning Minister AK Khandker on Saturday said achieving 7.2 percent GDP growth in the 2012-13 fiscal is possible if development projects are properly implemented, a claim disputed by reputed economist Dr AB Mirza Azizul Islam.
“If 90 percent of the ADP is implemented, it could influence the achievement of the total budgetary goals to a great extent,” he told a post-budget discussion organised by Centre for Policy Dialogue at a city hotel.
Planning Minister AK Khandker and former caretaker government adviser Mirza Aziz were addressing the event titled ‘Analysis of the National Budget for FY 2012-13.
In response to the minister’s remark that the targeted GDP growth is possible, Mirza Aziz termed the budget “mission impossible”.
He said higher borrowing interest rate will also worsen the already downtrend of the private sector investment this fiscal. “The economy, in no way, can see a 7.2 percent GDP growth. I’ll be the happiest man in this world if my prediction is proved wrong.”
The Planning Minister said the planning ministry is determined to implement 90 percent of the Tk 55,000 crore Annual Development Programmes (ADP) of the budget this fiscal.
The government envisages the higher growth to comply with the 6th five-year plan, said the minister, adding that the growth rate has been dynamic over the last couple of years due to improved ADP implementation rate and relatively stable macroeconomic framework.
The minister also pointed out that the budget for the new fiscal cannot be considered much bigger compared to that of the previous fiscal. He said the real budget size this fiscal has increased by only 8 percent than the previous one.
Referring to low foreign direct investment (FDI) and huge loss by the state-owned enterprises in the last fiscal, Mirza Aziz said there is an uncertainty over ADP implementation as it is a Tk 52,000 crore deficit budget, which is nearly equal to the Tk 55,000 crore ADP size. “There’re concerns over the source of financing.”
He said external sources are expected to provide Tk 18,584 crore, but the disbursement during the July 11-March 12 period was only Tk. 6,838 crore.
Besides, Aziz said, borrowing through the national savings certificates is estimated to be Tk 7,400 crore whereas the net sale during July 11-April 12 of the last fiscal amounted to only Tk 380 crores.
Predictably, borrowing from those sources is going to fail, bank borrowing will greatly exceed the target of Tk. 23,000 crores for this fiscal, if the targeted expenditures need to prevail, Aziz told the programme.
BNP leader and former commerce minister Amir Khashru Mahmud Chowdhury also echoed Mirza Aziz’s opinion on the negative investment scenario for the new financial year. There is no scope for much investment amid political instability, he said.
He alleged that that the regulatory institutions – the Securities and Exchange Commission and Anti Corruption Commission - have failed to deliver and earn the confidence of people. “There’s is no scope for investment where regulatory institutions turn dysfunctional.”
“If 90 percent of the ADP is implemented, it could influence the achievement of the total budgetary goals to a great extent,” he told a post-budget discussion organised by Centre for Policy Dialogue at a city hotel.
Planning Minister AK Khandker and former caretaker government adviser Mirza Aziz were addressing the event titled ‘Analysis of the National Budget for FY 2012-13.
In response to the minister’s remark that the targeted GDP growth is possible, Mirza Aziz termed the budget “mission impossible”.
He said higher borrowing interest rate will also worsen the already downtrend of the private sector investment this fiscal. “The economy, in no way, can see a 7.2 percent GDP growth. I’ll be the happiest man in this world if my prediction is proved wrong.”
The Planning Minister said the planning ministry is determined to implement 90 percent of the Tk 55,000 crore Annual Development Programmes (ADP) of the budget this fiscal.
The government envisages the higher growth to comply with the 6th five-year plan, said the minister, adding that the growth rate has been dynamic over the last couple of years due to improved ADP implementation rate and relatively stable macroeconomic framework.
The minister also pointed out that the budget for the new fiscal cannot be considered much bigger compared to that of the previous fiscal. He said the real budget size this fiscal has increased by only 8 percent than the previous one.
Referring to low foreign direct investment (FDI) and huge loss by the state-owned enterprises in the last fiscal, Mirza Aziz said there is an uncertainty over ADP implementation as it is a Tk 52,000 crore deficit budget, which is nearly equal to the Tk 55,000 crore ADP size. “There’re concerns over the source of financing.”
He said external sources are expected to provide Tk 18,584 crore, but the disbursement during the July 11-March 12 period was only Tk. 6,838 crore.
Besides, Aziz said, borrowing through the national savings certificates is estimated to be Tk 7,400 crore whereas the net sale during July 11-April 12 of the last fiscal amounted to only Tk 380 crores.
Predictably, borrowing from those sources is going to fail, bank borrowing will greatly exceed the target of Tk. 23,000 crores for this fiscal, if the targeted expenditures need to prevail, Aziz told the programme.
BNP leader and former commerce minister Amir Khashru Mahmud Chowdhury also echoed Mirza Aziz’s opinion on the negative investment scenario for the new financial year. There is no scope for much investment amid political instability, he said.
He alleged that that the regulatory institutions – the Securities and Exchange Commission and Anti Corruption Commission - have failed to deliver and earn the confidence of people. “There’s is no scope for investment where regulatory institutions turn dysfunctional.”
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